Diversified Short Portfolio

UPDATED ON

Nov 12

About this portfolio

Description

Diversified Short holds up to 4 names short from all sectors above $500M, no more than one per industry at any time. Selection weighs the model's negative score against its volatility score. Returns are those of a short position in the basket, so the figure rises when the basket falls.

Strategy

Equal capital goes into every position. The book is rebuilt each morning from the names the model expects to fall, and the orders are placed as market orders, so shorts and covers fill at the opening price. Positions are held for 6 to 21 days: they are not rotated out before day 6 and are covered by day 21. Every position carries a 40% stop on both sides. A short is covered if the price runs 40% above its entry, and equally if it falls 40% below it, filling at the first open after the level is touched. Reported returns are those of a short position in the basket: the position gains when the basket falls and loses when it rises. They are measured from those opening prices and include every stop exit. A short position's loss is not capped, and borrowing costs and stock-loan fees are not included.

Holdings:4
New Additions:2
Removed:2

Holdings4

NEW

NRGV

Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.
Sector:Industrials
Industry:Electrical Equipment & Parts
Market Cap:$0.59B
Analysts Rating:2.4/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
66.2%
61.1%
64.4%
NEW

VNET

VNET Group, Inc.
Sector:Technology
Industry:Information Technology Services
Market Cap:$0.88B
Analysts Rating:2.4/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
49.0%
64.5%
69.0%

IREN

IREN Limited
Sector:Technology
Industry:Software - Services
Market Cap:$8.76B
Analysts Rating:2.1/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
38.4%
68.9%
72.2%

AEVA

Aeva Technologies, Inc.
Sector:Technology
Industry:Semiconductors
Market Cap:$0.77B
Analysts Rating:2.3/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
63.3%
48.2%
56.3%
Removed Stocks2
REMOVED

ENVX

Enovix Corporation
Sector:Industrials
Industry:Electrical Equipment & Parts
Market Cap:$0.61B
Analysts Rating:2.3/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
44.1%
62.9%
51.4%
REMOVED

CLYM

Climb Bio, Inc.
Sector:Healthcare
Industry:Biotechnology
Market Cap:$0.59B
Analysts Rating:2.0/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
78.3%
50.4%
40.4%

Recent News & Events

NRGVPOSITIVENov 11, 2026
Analyst Price Target Raise

Cantor Fitzgerald raises PT to $12 from $7, maintains Overweight

Cantor Fitzgerald more than doubled its price target to $12 (from $7) while keeping an Overweight rating, citing the backlog. The target implies ~240% upside from the ~$3.53 level, a strong bullish signal that likely contributed to the following session's rally.

Investing.com
NRGVPOSITIVENov 11, 2026
Stock Price Movement

Shares rally ~7% post-earnings on 2027 outlook and backlog

NRGV climbed ~7.08% to $3.78, one of its strongest recent sessions, as investors rewarded the newly unveiled 2027 outlook and expanding backlog rather than the headline revenue shortfall. Reflects improving near-term sentiment and momentum following the analyst upgrade.

Tickeron
VNETPOSITIVENov 11, 2026
Analyst Initiation

Macquarie Initiates Coverage with Outperform, $5.40 PT

Macquarie initiated VNET with an Outperform rating and $5.40 price target, driving a 16.67% intraday surge on Nov 11. The initiation adds to a constructive consensus (~15 Strong Buy ratings, avg PT $13.13) and could sustain near-term momentum, though volume was below average.

AInvest
IRENNEGATIVENov 10, 2026
Analyst Price Target Cut

Goldman cuts PT to $30 from $50, Neutral

Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month price target to $30 from $50 while keeping a Neutral rating, citing compression in AI-related multiples and heightened execution/financing risks. The cut reinforces cautious sentiment and could weigh on near-term price action.

Yahoo Finance
AEVANEGATIVENov 10, 2026
Analyst Price Target Cut

Craig Hallum trims PT to $25, keeps Buy

Craig Hallum maintained its Buy rating but cut its price target to $25 from $35, signaling a reset in near-term execution expectations. The cut reflects caution on how quickly lidar and optical wins translate into financial results, a modest negative for sentiment.

Yahoo Finance / Simply Wall St
AEVANEUTRALNov 10, 2026
Analyst Initiation

Goldman Sachs initiates Neutral with $20 PT

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and $20 price target, calling Aeva a lidar leader but implying limited upside from current levels. The Neutral stance suggests much of the transportation-win benefit is already priced in, a mild negative.

Yahoo Finance / Simply Wall St
NRGVNEGATIVENov 10, 2026
Earnings Report

Q3 2026 results miss revenue, beat EPS; guidance affirmed

Energy Vault reported Q3 2026 revenue of $13.1M, down 61% YoY and below the ~$18.55M consensus, while adjusted loss of $0.14/share beat the $0.16 expected. Shares fell ~2.5% in the regular session and ~4.8% after hours as the revenue miss and heavy Q4 dependence dominated sentiment despite strong margins and cash growth.

Energy Vault Press Release
NRGVPOSITIVENov 10, 2026
Guidance Update

Affirms 2026 revenue guidance, issues strong preliminary 2027 outlook

Company affirmed FY2026 revenue of $290–$310M (top half of prior range) and issued preliminary FY2027 revenue guidance of $600–$700M with adjusted EBITDA of $40–$50M. The forward outlook and record $2.3B backlog (up 147% YoY) were cited as the driver of the subsequent share rally, providing a positive medium-term narrative.

Energy Vault Press Release
VNETNEGATIVENov 10, 2026
Balance Sheet Concern

Leverage and Negative Cash Flow Weigh on Sentiment

Net debt is well above market cap (~6.8x EBITDA) with negative free cash flow and RMB 10-12 billion annual capex, keeping sentiment pressured near 52-week lows. Refinancing progress and margin trends are key swing factors into and around the Q3 report.

Tickeron
IRENNEGATIVENov 9, 2026
Analyst Price Target Cut

Cantor cuts PT to $47 from $99, keeps Overweight

Cantor Fitzgerald slashed its price target to $47 from $99 (still implying large upside) while retaining Overweight, citing the Microsoft deployment slip and reduced EBITDA estimates. Macquarie ($55 from $90) and BTIG ($65 from $80) also trimmed targets, reflecting broad analyst recalibration of revenue timing.

Yahoo Finance
VNETNEUTRALNov 9, 2026
Earnings Report

Q3 2026 Earnings Scheduled for November 23

VNET will report unaudited Q3 2026 results before U.S. market open on Nov 23, with a conference call at 7:00 AM ET. Investors will focus on wholesale capacity additions, utilization, guidance, CATL partnership commentary, and refinancing progress given the heavy debt load; the print is the primary near-term binary catalyst.

PR Newswire (Company Press Release)
IRENPOSITIVENov 5, 2026
Earnings Report

Q1 FY27 results beat on AI Cloud revenue

IREN reported total revenue of $228M (up 66% QoQ) and AI Cloud revenue of $200M (up 182% QoQ), beating consensus of ~$221M. Adjusted EBITDA of $66M topped estimates, but net loss was $263M and bitcoin mining revenue fell sharply. The revenue beat drove a positive initial reaction, though the stock remains volatile.

CNBC
IRENNEGATIVENov 5, 2026
Guidance Delay

$4B+ ARR target pushed to January 2027

IREN delayed its fully contracted $4B+ annual recurring revenue target from year-end 2026 to January 2027 (possibly February) due to a Microsoft-requested network design change and supplier timing. The delay raises execution and revenue-timing concerns and is a key driver of the recent selloff and analyst target cuts.

CNBC
IRENPOSITIVENov 5, 2026
Contract Expansion

Post-quarter contract expansions and higher pricing

After quarter-end, IREN expanded its contract with a Leading Frontier AI Lab, signed a five-year deal at ~$22M per IT-MW with 90% GPU capex prepaid, and a short-term contract at $40M per IT-MW. Rising contracted pricing (+11% on 3-year, +12% on 5-year deals) supports the demand narrative and could offset delay concerns.

IREN Press Release
IRENNEUTRALNov 5, 2026
Capex Reduction

FY27 capex trimmed to ~$15B on market conditions

IREN reduced its remaining FY27 capex plan to about $15B, citing current financial market conditions, with $9B already identified via cash, committed GPU financing and prepayments. The pullback signals financial discipline but also reflects tighter financing conditions that could pressure growth expectations.

Yahoo Finance
AEVANEGATIVENov 4, 2026
Earnings Report

Q3 2026 results — EPS beat, revenue miss

Aeva reported Q3 2026 EPS of -$0.39, beating the -$0.43 consensus by $0.04, but revenue of $6.7M fell short of the $7.23M estimate despite being a record and up from $3.6M a year ago. The revenue shortfall against consensus is likely to weigh on near-term sentiment even as the top-line growth trajectory remains intact.

Investing.com
AEVAPOSITIVENov 4, 2026
Product Portfolio Expansion

Expanded optical connectivity portfolio for AI data centers

Aeva introduced UHP chipsets, SPECTRA multiwavelength arrays, and MESA multichannel assemblies targeting AI data-center optical connectivity, with first UHP chipset revenues booked and a second optical customer in contract negotiations. The AI data-center angle is a key growth narrative that could attract momentum buyers.

Aeva Press Release (Business Wire)
AEVAPOSITIVENov 4, 2026
Government Contract / Partnership

US Air Force and Navy select Aeva for autonomy development

The US Air Force, together with the US Navy, selected Aeva for joint development using 4D LiDAR for remote sensing and airborne autonomy applications. Defense validation diversifies the customer base and supports the technology narrative.

Aeva Press Release (Business Wire)
AEVAPOSITIVENov 4, 2026
Supply Agreement

Multi-year Micro-Epsilon supply agreement with initial order

Micro-Epsilon selected Aeva's Eve technology for its next-generation factory automation line, with a multi-year supply agreement including an initial multi-thousand sensor order. The order provides incremental revenue visibility and industrial diversification.

Aeva Press Release (Business Wire)
AEVANEGATIVENov 4, 2026
Guidance Uncertainty

No explicit 2026 or 2027 financial guidance provided

Management did not provide explicit financial guidance for 2026 or 2027, leaving uncertainty about future revenue growth. The absence of guidance raises execution visibility concerns and could cap near-term upside.

Yahoo Finance
VNETNEGATIVEOct 30, 2026
Analyst Price Target Cut

UBS Nearly Halves PT to $6.80; Goldman Trims Target

UBS cut its price target from $13.40 to $6.80 (maintaining Buy) in late October, and Goldman Sachs trimmed its target in early November while keeping Buy. Recurring downward revisions reflect doubts over whether the costly AI buildout translates into profitability and cash flow, capping upside sentiment.

MarketBeat
VNETPOSITIVEAug 18, 2026
Partnership Ann.

CATL Compute-Energy Ecosystem Cooperation Agreement

VNET's August 18 strategic cooperation with CATL to build a three-layer compute-energy ecosystem (gigawatt-scale facilities, distributed networks, zero-carbon token ecosystem) is drawing renewed investor attention. Execution updates could clarify future operational cost savings and support the AI-infrastructure narrative.

AInvest

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