Megacap Portfolio

UPDATED ON

Sep 25

About this portfolio

Description

Megacap holds up to 8 names from the S&P 500. Selection follows the model's positive score.

Strategy

Equal capital goes into every recommendation. Recommendations are published a few hours before the open and placed as market orders, so buys and sells fill at the opening price. Positions are held for 12 to 17 days. Every position carries a 15% stop-loss: if the price touches it during the day, the position is sold there, at 85% of its entry price. Reported returns are measured from those opening prices and include every stop-loss exit.

Holdings:8
New Additions:0
Removed:0

Holdings8

SWKS

Skyworks Solutions, Inc.
Sector:Technology
Industry:Semiconductors
Market Cap:$13.36B
Analysts Target:-19%
Analysts Rating:2.5/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
39.5%
46.1%
24.0%

PAYC

Paycom Software, Inc.
Sector:Technology
Industry:Software - Application
Market Cap:$10.20B
Analysts Target:-8%
Analysts Rating:2.6/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
37.2%
40.1%
19.7%

DELL

Dell Technologies Inc.
Sector:Technology
Industry:Computer Hardware
Market Cap:$377.96B
Analysts Target:+0%
Analysts Rating:2.5/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
39.9%
43.5%
36.6%

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Sector:Energy
Industry:Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Market Cap:$124.04B
Analysts Target:-4%
Analysts Rating:2.2/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
24.8%
46.7%
11.8%

MRNA

Moderna, Inc.
Sector:Healthcare
Industry:Biotechnology
Market Cap:$61.12B
Analysts Target:-24%
Analysts Rating:2.9/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
42.6%
72.9%
59.2%

SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Sector:Technology
Industry:Computer Hardware
Market Cap:$25.29B
Analysts Target:+6%
Analysts Rating:2.7/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
45.2%
53.6%
33.1%

HPQ

HP Inc.
Sector:Technology
Industry:Computer Hardware
Market Cap:$31.46B
Analysts Target:-25%
Analysts Rating:2.8/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
46.8%
52.8%
23.1%

TTD

The Trade Desk, Inc.
Sector:Communication Services
Industry:Advertising Agencies
Market Cap:$6.54B
Analysts Target:+5%
Analysts Rating:2.7/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
47.7%
39.4%
32.4%

Recent News & Events

MRNAPOSITIVEOct 24, 2026
Clinical Data Presentation

Phase 3 Melanoma Vaccine Data at ESMO Congress

Moderna is scheduled to present detailed Phase 3 results for its personalized cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene, at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress in a Presidential Symposium. This data is highly anticipated as it will provide the first detailed look at the efficacy curves for the therapy, which has already met primary and secondary endpoints in the INTerpath-001 trial.

Moderna Press Release
HPQNEUTRALOct 7, 2026
Dividend Payment

HPQ Dividend Payable October 7

HP Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.30 per share, payable on October 7, 2026, to shareholders of record as of September 9, 2026. This represents a consistent return of capital to shareholders, though it is a routine corporate action.

StockTitan
MPCNEGATIVESep 24, 2026
Regulatory Filing

Investigation into St. Paul Park refinery fatality

Law enforcement and safety regulators have launched an active investigation into a contractor fatality at the St. Paul Park refinery. This event exposes the company to potential OSHA compliance penalties, operational delays, and increased scrutiny of safety protocols.

TradingKey
MPCNEGATIVESep 24, 2026
Analyst Downgrade

Jefferies downgrades MPC to Hold

Jefferies downgraded Marathon Petroleum from Buy to Hold, citing stretched valuations and an unfavorable risk-reward profile. The firm warned that current prices imply unsustainably high midcycle refining margins through 2030.

TradingKey
MPCNEGATIVESep 23, 2026
Regulatory Filing

Potential U.S. diesel export ban

The White House is considering a ban on U.S. diesel exports to address domestic fuel price inflation. Such a policy could curtail Marathon's access to foreign buyers, potentially flooding the domestic market and compressing refining margins.

The Motley Fool
SMCIPOSITIVESep 23, 2026
Product Launch

Shipping of NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 Racks

Super Micro Computer has commenced shipments of its new NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks, which feature the company's proprietary direct liquid cooling (DLC-2) technology. This rollout is a key strategic move to capture high-end AI infrastructure demand, though market reaction remains tempered by valuation concerns and broader governance risks.

Supermicro Press Release
PAYCPOSITIVESep 21, 2026
Analyst Upgrade

KeyBanc Raises Price Target to $280

KeyBanc raised its price target for Paycom from $270 to $280, maintaining an Overweight rating. The firm cited increased confidence in the sustainability of the company's margin expansion efforts and an accelerated pace of product innovation.

Investing.com
MPCPOSITIVESep 21, 2026
Analyst Upgrade

Goldman Sachs raises price target to $472

Goldman Sachs raised its price target for MPC from $376 to $472 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing strong refining margins and market positioning. This follows a period of significant stock price appreciation and new 52-week highs.

MarketBeat
SMCINEGATIVESep 21, 2026
Regulatory/Legal Risk

Ongoing DOJ and Governance Scrutiny

The company continues to face market pressure due to an ongoing independent board review regarding export-control transactions and potential Department of Justice (DOJ) investigations. Analysts note that these legal and governance uncertainties act as a persistent overhang on the stock price, despite strong revenue growth and a record backlog.

247wallst.com
HPQNEGATIVESep 21, 2026
Regulatory Filing

HPQ Withholds FY2027 Guidance and Warns of PC Decline

HP Inc. disclosed in an SEC filing that it will not provide fiscal 2027 financial guidance at this time and expects global PC unit volumes to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage in calendar 2027. This cautious outlook reflects persistent headwinds in the PC sector and has contributed to recent stock price volatility.

BigGo
SWKSPOSITIVESep 18, 2026
Regulatory Filing

Extension of Qorvo Note Exchange Offers

Skyworks has extended the expiration date and withdrawal deadline for its exchange offers for Qorvo's senior notes to September 25, 2026. This extension is a procedural step tied to the finalization of the $22 billion merger, which is expected to close by the end of 2026.

StockTitan
TTDNEUTRALSep 18, 2026
Regulatory Filing

Special Stockholder Meeting for Option Repricing

The Trade Desk has called a virtual special stockholder meeting for October 19, 2026, to seek approval for a one-time repricing of certain underwater stock options. This proposal affects over 15 million shares and reflects management's attempt to retain talent despite recent stock price declines.

StockTitan
DELLNEGATIVESep 17, 2026
Insider Sale

Senior Executives and Major Shareholders Execute Stock Sales

Multiple senior executives, including the CFO, and entities associated with Silver Lake Partners have filed numerous reports of significant stock sales throughout September 2026. This sustained wave of insider liquidation has been identified by market observers as a factor contributing to recent downward volatility in the stock price.

GuruFocus
PAYCNEUTRALSep 3, 2026
Regulatory Filing

Insider Rule 10b5-1 Sales Plan Disclosure

A Schedule 13D/A filing revealed that Ernest Group, Inc. entered into a Rule 10b5-1 sales plan authorizing the sale of up to 1,090,000 shares. The sales are scheduled to occur between December 1, 2026 (or after Q3 earnings) and June 1, 2027, representing a pre-planned divestment rather than an immediate market action.

StockTitan

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