Megacap Portfolio

UPDATED ON

Nov 12

About this portfolio

Description

Megacap holds up to 8 names from the S&P 500. Selection follows the model's positive score.

Strategy

Equal capital goes into every recommendation. Recommendations are published a few hours before the open and placed as market orders, so buys and sells fill at the opening price. Positions are held for 12 to 17 days. Every position carries a 15% stop-loss: if the price touches it during the day, the position is sold there, at 85% of its entry price. Reported returns are measured from those opening prices and include every stop-loss exit.

Holdings:8
New Additions:2
Removed:2

Holdings8

NEW

LULU

Lululemon Athletica Inc.
Sector:Consumer Cyclical
Industry:Apparel - Retail
Market Cap:$12.83B
Analysts Target:-11%
Analysts Rating:2.7/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
59.4%
54.3%
21.9%
NEW

TTD

The Trade Desk, Inc.
Sector:Communication Services
Industry:Advertising Agencies
Market Cap:$6.11B
Analysts Target:+5%
Analysts Rating:2.7/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
40.1%
73.1%
42.6%

MRNA

Moderna, Inc.
Sector:Healthcare
Industry:Biotechnology
Market Cap:$101.48B
Analysts Target:-44%
Analysts Rating:3.0/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
61.0%
71.0%
68.9%

HPQ

HP Inc.
Sector:Technology
Industry:Computer Hardware
Market Cap:$25.66B
Analysts Target:-9%
Analysts Rating:2.8/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
46.7%
40.4%
21.6%

CRWD

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
Sector:Technology
Industry:Software - Infrastructure
Market Cap:$222.09B
Analysts Target:+14%
Analysts Rating:2.3/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
37.5%
43.8%
23.3%

ACN

Accenture plc
Sector:Technology
Industry:Information Technology Services
Market Cap:$153.97B
Analysts Target:-11%
Analysts Rating:2.4/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
45.8%
64.3%
26.2%

FDS

FactSet Research Systems Inc.
Sector:Financial Services
Industry:Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Market Cap:$11.56B
Analysts Target:-20%
Analysts Rating:3.1/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
35.3%
48.3%
19.2%

EPAM

EPAM Systems, Inc.
Sector:Technology
Industry:Information Technology Services
Market Cap:$8.22B
Analysts Target:-24%
Analysts Rating:2.5/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
36.1%
56.4%
26.9%
Removed Stocks2
REMOVED

GDDY

GoDaddy Inc.
Sector:Technology
Industry:Software - Infrastructure
Market Cap:$13.87B
Analysts Target:-12%
Analysts Rating:2.5/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
26.4%
57.4%
12.1%
REMOVED

BBY

Best Buy Co., Inc.
Sector:Consumer Cyclical
Industry:Specialty Retail
Market Cap:$20.89B
Analysts Target:-12%
Analysts Rating:2.9/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
34.1%
54.8%
15.4%

Recent News & Events

CRWDNEUTRALDec 1, 2026
Earnings Report (Upcoming)

FQ3 results due Dec 1; ARR guidance in focus

CrowdStrike reports fiscal third quarter results after the close on December 1, with management guiding ending ARR to $6.184–6.188 billion and revenue of $1.523–1.529 billion. A clean beat/raise would validate AI-security demand and could reverse recent weakness; a miss on ARR or soft guidance risks further downside given the premium valuation.

TIKR.com
ACNNEGATIVENov 11, 2026
Reputational/Research Quality Controversy

AI research citation errors trigger credibility scrutiny

GPTZero flagged citation and factual errors in Accenture-linked AI research papers, including a 2025 agriculture policy report co-produced with IE University. Accenture attributes the errors to human error and plans a corrected release. The issue raises questions about research quality controls as Accenture expands its AI advisory business, a potential modest near-term negative on sentiment.

AD HOC NEWS
ACNNEUTRALNov 11, 2026
Earnings Preview

Fiscal Q1 2027 results due December 2026

Accenture is expected to report fiscal Q1 2027 results in December 2026, the first quarter under its 2%-6% local currency growth guide. The report will show how quickly recent record bookings convert to sales and whether the 15.9%-16.1% adjusted margin guide holds amid competitive pricing. This is the dominant near-term catalyst with two-way risk.

Yahoo Finance / Trefis
FDSPOSITIVENov 11, 2026
Partnership Ann.

FactSet becomes lead investor in geniosAI

FactSet became lead investor and partner in geniosAI to build AI-driven tools for institutional finance, plugging its datasets into geniosAI's LLM platform for portfolio research and risk analysis. The deal supports the AI growth narrative (AI SKUs >10% of new ASV) but adds execution risk amid crowded AI analytics competition.

Simply Wall St News
FDSNEUTRALNov 11, 2026
Guidance Reaffirmation / Dividend

FY27 outlook reaffirmed; dividend confirmed

FactSet reaffirmed FY27 guidance (organic ASV growth 5.0-6.5%, revenue $2,600-2,625M, adjusted EPS $19.25-19.65) and confirmed a regular quarterly dividend. Guidance is described as "higher and tighter" than prior years, though the ASV range represents a declared deceleration from the 7% just delivered, keeping the fair-value debate active.

Yahoo Finance
EPAMPOSITIVENov 11, 2026
Analyst Price Target Raise

Mizuho raises PT to $181, maintains Outperform

Mizuho lifted its EPAM price target to $181 from $130 while keeping an Outperform rating, citing three large AI-led deal wins expected to ramp in H1 2027 and AI-native revenue momentum, and raised its 2027 organic constant currency growth expectations. A large PT increase from a credible bank reinforces positive sentiment and can attract incremental buyers.

Investing.com
CRWDPOSITIVENov 10, 2026
Analyst Commentary

Piper Sandler sees conservative setup into earnings

Piper Sandler said CrowdStrike has a positive, conservative setup going into its FQ3 report, with the name poised to potentially accelerate and give strong outlooks. Bullish pre-earnings analyst commentary can support sentiment and drive positioning ahead of the December 1 print.

Seeking Alpha
FDSNEGATIVENov 10, 2026
Investor Day / Guidance

Investor Day sets FY29 outlook below consensus

FactSet's first Investor Day under CEO Sanoke Viswanathan outlined a medium-term algorithm of ~6% organic revenue CAGR, at least 36% adjusted operating margin by FY29, ~10% adjusted EPS CAGR, and >90% FCF conversion, while reaffirming FY27 guidance. The FY29 targets came in below consensus and the stock fell ~4% on the day, signaling near-term negative sentiment around decelerating growth.

GlobeNewswire (Company Press Release)
EPAMPOSITIVENov 10, 2026
Post-Earnings Momentum / Sentiment

Continued positive reaction to Q3 and larger buyback

EPAM rose ~4.7% on November 10 as investors continued to digest the strong Q3 profitability, raised outlook, and enlarged repurchase plan with the planned accelerated buyback. Ongoing follow-through buying suggests sustained near-term positive momentum, though it also raises the risk of consolidation after the move.

Quiver Quantitative
TTDNEGATIVENov 10, 2026
Post-Earnings Pullback

Shares slip 6% giving back part of rally

Following the prior session's surge, TTD shares fell about 6% as the market digested results, with attention on declining profitability and a one-time ~3 percentage point revenue benefit from a strategic partner not expected to recur. The pullback reflects fading post-earnings momentum and could drive near-term volatility.

Seeking Alpha
ACNPOSITIVENov 9, 2026
Partnership Ann.

Mondelez selects Accenture for agentic AI redesign

Mondelez International selected Accenture to redesign its entire Order-to-Cash cycle using agentic AI, linking customer service, supply chain and finance into a single data-driven workflow. The win reinforces Accenture's AI deal momentum and supports positive sentiment around its AI-led growth narrative.

Simply Wall St News
ACNPOSITIVENov 9, 2026
Product Launch

Accenture launches Data-as-a-Service for enterprise AI

Accenture launched Data-as-a-Service, offering industry experts and enterprise testing environments to help organizations train and validate AI for business-critical workflows, alongside the EnterpriseVAL benchmark with Faculty. The launch reinforces Accenture's positioning in enterprise AI and could support positive sentiment.

Accenture Newsroom
LULUNEGATIVENov 9, 2026
Analyst Rating

Cantor Fitzgerald initiates LULU at Neutral, $121 PT

Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and $121 price target, with commentary noting the stock struggles to find buyers even at discounted valuation. A cautious initiation limits near-term upside conviction and reinforces resistance at the 50-day moving average.

Investing.com
LULUNEGATIVENov 9, 2026
Insider/Institutional Filing

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust cuts LULU stake 97%

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group reduced its stake by 97.0% in Q3 per its latest 13F, selling 257,511 shares. A large institutional exit can signal waning confidence and add modest selling pressure on sentiment.

MarketBeat
LULUNEUTRALNov 9, 2026
Leadership Appointment

LULU names new chief brand and strategy officers

Lululemon named Ben Hallam chief brand officer effective November 9 and Emily Sunderland chief strategy officer. The hires could reinforce brand and strategic execution, though no expected financial effects were disclosed, limiting immediate price impact.

MarketBeat
LULUPOSITIVENov 9, 2026
Analyst Rating

Zacks Research upgrades LULU to Hold

Zacks Research upgraded LULU from strong sell to hold, a modest improvement in rating outlook that may marginally ease bearish sentiment but is unlikely to be a major standalone catalyst.

MarketBeat
TTDPOSITIVENov 9, 2026
Earnings Report

Q3 2026 revenue and EPS beat estimates

TTD reported Q3 revenue of $736M vs. ~$651M consensus and adjusted EPS of $0.33 vs. $0.25 expected, despite revenue slipping 0.5% YoY. The beat eased growth concerns and triggered a sharp positive reaction, though net income fell 67% YoY and margins compressed, tempering the upside.

Company Press Release
TTDPOSITIVENov 9, 2026
Buyback Authorization Increase

Board adds $731M to share repurchase program

The board approved an additional $731M, bringing total available buyback capacity to $1B. The expanded authorization signals management confidence and provides a support mechanism for the stock, contributing to the post-earnings rally.

Company Press Release
TTDNEUTRALNov 9, 2026
Guidance

Q4 revenue outlook of at least $755M

Management guided Q4 revenue to at least $755M and adjusted EBITDA to at least $280M. The outlook implies continued modest growth but reflects ongoing deceleration, which could cap upside as investors weigh the recovery trajectory.

Company Press Release
TTDPOSITIVENov 9, 2026
Partnership Announcement

Netflix integration enables data-driven targeting from November

Netflix expanded its integration with TTD, letting advertisers use first- and third-party data to target audiences via Kokai beginning in November, with in-platform measurement to follow. The expanded CTV access is a potential incremental revenue driver supporting the growth narrative.

Company Press Release
MRNAPOSITIVENov 6, 2026
Earnings Report

Q3 2026 revenue beat and raised full-year guidance

Moderna reported Q3 2026 revenue of $1.3B (+29% YoY), beating the ~$885M consensus by ~48%, with GAAP net income of $162M and diluted EPS of $0.38 versus a year-ago loss. It raised 2026 revenue growth guidance to 15%-25% from up to 10%, cut R&D expense outlook to ~$2.7B, and lifted year-end cash guidance to $8.1-$8.3B. The beat-and-raise is a clear positive near-term catalyst, with shares reportedly jumping on the print.

Reuters (via Yahoo Finance)
MRNAPOSITIVENov 6, 2026
Clinical Data / Oncology Readout

Intismeran melanoma Phase 3 data shows 42% risk reduction

Moderna and Merck presented positive Phase 3 INTerpath-001 results at ESMO 2026, with intismeran autogene plus KEYTRUDA cutting melanoma recurrence/death risk by 42% (HR=0.58) versus KEYTRUDA alone. The companies are preparing regulatory submissions toward a potential 2027 launch. Continued validation of the personalized cancer vaccine is a key long-term growth driver and supports positive sentiment around the pipeline.

Moderna Press Release (SEC Filing)
MRNAPOSITIVENov 6, 2026
Product Approval

FDA approval of mFLUSIVA mRNA flu vaccine

The FDA approved mFLUSIVA, Moderna's mRNA-based seasonal influenza vaccine, for adults 50-64 and accelerated approval for 65+, its fifth approved product globally; Canada approval also received. A limited US launch is planned for the 2026-27 season due to late approval timing, so near-term revenue impact is modest but it broadens the commercial portfolio.

Moderna Press Release (SEC Filing)
MRNANEGATIVENov 6, 2026
Pipeline Setback

Norovirus vaccine program paused after Phase 3 interim miss

Following a Phase 3 interim analysis that did not meet statistical criteria for early success, Moderna does not plan to initiate an additional cohort this season and will engage health authorities on the program's path forward. The setback removes a near-term pipeline catalyst and is a modest negative offset to the otherwise strong quarter.

Moderna Press Release (SEC Filing)
MRNANEUTRALNov 6, 2026
Conference Presentation

mRNA-2808 abstract accepted for ASH oral presentation

Moderna's mRNA-2808 abstract was accepted for an oral presentation at the American Society of Hematology meeting on December 12, 2026 in New Orleans. This is a scheduled near-term data catalyst that could move shares depending on the results disclosed.

Moderna Press Release (SEC Filing)
MRNANEUTRALNov 6, 2026
Clinical Data Readout

Pivotal propionic acidemia data expected in 2026

Moderna's registrational study for propionic acidemia (mRNA-3927) has reached target enrollment, with pivotal data expected in 2026. An imminent readout represents a binary near-term catalyst for the rare disease pipeline.

Moderna Press Release (SEC Filing)
HPQPOSITIVENov 6, 2026
Product Recognition

Workforce Experience Platform Named Forrester Strong Performer

HP's Workforce Experience Platform was named a Strong Performer in Forrester's Q4 2026 review, earning top scores for roadmap, hybrid work, and digital employee experience. A modest positive for the services narrative ahead of earnings, though likely low direct price impact.

TradingView News (GlobeNewswire)
CRWDNEGATIVENov 5, 2026
Stock Price Move / Valuation Reset

Shares fall ~10% on valuation concerns

CrowdStrike fell 9.9% on November 5 on nearly triple normal volume, erasing recent gains despite record net new ARR of $333M (+51% YoY). The move reflects a valuation reset and heightened sensitivity to sentiment, leaving the stock reactive to the upcoming earnings catalyst.

TIKR.com
FDSNEUTRALNov 5, 2026
Analyst Rating / Price Target

Wells Fargo raises PT to $290, keeps Underweight

Wells Fargo raised its FactSet price target to $290 from $250 on AI-driven data usage but maintained an Underweight rating, citing rising long-term competition as AI lowers barriers to entry. The mixed signal (higher PT, negative rating) offers limited near-term directional support.

Investing.com
EPAMPOSITIVENov 5, 2026
Earnings Report

Q3 2026 beat with raised full-year guidance

EPAM reported Q3 revenue of $1.426B (up 2.3% YoY, 2.5% organic constant currency) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.51, beating the $3.40 consensus, with GAAP operating margin expanding to 12.3% from 10.4%. Full-year revenue growth guidance was raised to 3.5%-3.7% and non-GAAP EPS to $13.23-$13.31. Shares rose ~5% pre-market on the release, and positive follow-through persisted into the following week.

EPAM Investor Relations (Press Release)
EPAMPOSITIVENov 5, 2026
Buyback Authorization / Capital Return

$1.8B buyback authorization and $500M accelerated share repurchase

The Board approved a new $1.8B repurchase program (replacing the prior authorization) and EPAM plans to enter a $500M accelerated share repurchase during the week of November 9, 2026, funded with cash and credit facility borrowings. The company also committed to returning at least 50% of free cash flow to shareholders annually from 2027-2029. The ASR execution is imminent and mechanically supports the stock via reduced share count and confidence signaling.

EPAM Investor Relations (Press Release)
LULUNEGATIVENov 5, 2026
Securities Class Action

Investor class action filed; lead plaintiff deadline Jan 4

Pomerantz and other firms publicized a securities fraud class action covering purchases from March 18 to September 3, 2026, alleging the company understated weakening demand before guidance cuts. The pending litigation adds legal and reputational overhang; the lead-plaintiff deadline of January 4, 2027 keeps the issue in the news flow.

PR Newswire (Pomerantz LLP)
HPQPOSITIVENov 4, 2026
CEO Appointment

Emma Walmsley Named CEO Effective January 2027

HP appointed former GSK CEO and Microsoft board member Emma Walmsley as CEO effective January 4, 2027, with Bruce Broussard moving to Chair. Shares rose 6.6% on the news as investors bet on her restructuring track record to navigate the memory-chip crunch and PC downturn; the positive sentiment may carry into the earnings call.

HP Inc. Press Release (GlobeNewswire)
HPQNEUTRALNov 3, 2026
Earnings Report

Q4 and FY2026 Earnings Due November 24

HP will report fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results on November 24, 2026. Investors will focus on Personal Systems profitability, print supplies resilience, AI PC mix (already 46% of shipments), and cost-savings progress amid rising memory-chip costs and mid-single-digit PC unit declines; results and guidance framing are a direct near-term price driver.

HP Inc. Press Release (GlobeNewswire)
HPQNEUTRALNov 3, 2026
Investor Conference

Management to Present at UBS Tech Conference Dec 1

HP will attend the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference on December 1, 2026, with Personal Systems President Ketan Patel participating in a fireside chat. Just beyond the two-week window but relevant for post-earnings AI PC messaging and potential incremental commentary.

HP Inc. Press Release (GlobeNewswire)
CRWDNEUTRALNov 3, 2026
M&A / Product Launch

$495M AI security acquisitions and AI Kill Switch launch

CrowdStrike agreed to acquire Fiddler AI (~$400M) and Dreadnode (~$95M) and launched an AI Kill Switch in Falcon Guardian to terminate rogue AI agents. The strategic AI-security positioning is a positive narrative, though the deals add little near-term revenue and the stock sold off ~10% two days later on valuation concerns.

Yahoo Finance
LULUNEUTRALNov 3, 2026
Analyst Rating

Baird reiterates Neutral on mixed October data

Baird maintained a Neutral rating with a $115 price target after October checks showed mixed results—low markdown growth, moderating newness growth, and weakening U.S. demand indicators. Checks are consistent with Q3 guidance for Americas revenue down mid-teens, framing a low bar into December earnings but keeping sentiment cautious.

Investing.com

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