Fed two-day meeting concludes Wednesday; hold expected
The FOMC begins its two-day meeting Tuesday and announces its decision Wednesday, with markets pricing only ~10% odds of a hike. Chair Kevin Warsh's commentary will be scrutinized for signals on further tightening after September's 25bp hike to 4.0%, making the statement and press conference a direct catalyst for rate-sensitive equities and the dollar.
Third-quarter GDP and the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, are both released Thursday. Hotter-than-expected inflation could reinforce hawkish Fed expectations and pressure equities, while soft prints would ease rate-hike fears.
Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday, followed by Amazon Thursday. These results are the key test for the AI trade amid investor concern over debt-fueled AI capex; strong results could reignite the rally, while disappointments risk renewed tech selling.
Anthropic publicly filed its IPO prospectus, planning to list on Nasdaq at a reported ~$1.5 trillion valuation, though its H1 2026 net loss widened fivefold to ~$80.7 billion. The filing revived AI-trade enthusiasm Monday but also spotlighted steep AI development costs, keeping sector sentiment volatile.
Nvidia said it will invest $3 billion in Meta's share offering as part of an expanded AI partnership. The move reinforces AI-infrastructure commitments between megacaps, a supportive signal for AI-linked equities though it also feeds concerns about circular AI spending.
Significant Geopolitical Events with US Economic Impact
Iran conflict escalation keeps oil elevated
As the US-Iran conflict enters its ninth month, President Trump is weighing stepped-up military operations against Tehran, while Qatari mediators visited Iran to cool tensions and Houthi-Saudi strikes raise supply-disruption fears. Brent near $115 after a 6% weekly surge keeps energy-driven inflation risk in focus for markets.
Whirlpool cut FY revenue guidance to $14.5B from $15B and posted a Q3 adjusted loss of 21 cents versus an expected 80-cent profit, with revenue missing estimates. Shares fell ~9% after hours, signaling demand weakness in consumer durables.
JetBlue guides to Q4 margin expansion despite fuel costs
JetBlue surged 7% after hours on expectations of further Q4 margin expansion even as fuel prices are seen 85% higher year-over-year. The guidance signals airline pricing power resilience despite elevated energy costs.