Amazon reported Q3 EPS of $1.89 on revenue of $201.94B, missing LSEG consensus of $1.96 and $202.31B, with negative free cash flow of $42.4B and maintained $220B 2026 capex. Shares fell ~6-7% after hours/premarket, pressuring Nasdaq-100 futures and reinforcing investor scrutiny of AI-related spending.
Intel guided current-quarter adjusted EPS to $0.25 on revenue of $15-16B versus consensus of $0.43 and $17.1B, citing a PC slowdown with client computing revenue down 5% YoY. Shares fell 21-25% premarket, a major drag on semiconductor sentiment and Nasdaq-100 futures.
Alphabet missed Q3 revenue estimates and posted negative free cash flow of $9.07B, sending shares down 12% (worst day in over 20 years) and dragging the Nasdaq Composite down 1.4%. The reaction signals heightened market sensitivity to hyperscaler AI capex and returns, a negative near-term overhang for megacap tech.
Headline PCE rose 0.5% MoM with YoY at 3.6% and core at 3.1%, both above the Fed's 2% target and the fastest in six months on higher energy costs. Sticky inflation supports higher-for-longer rate expectations and pressures equity valuations, particularly rate-sensitive growth names.
The Fed held rates unchanged on Wednesday, but two dissenters favored a rate hike amid sticky inflation, a hawkish signal that raises near-term rate-risk premium. November VIX futures now carry a building hump for hike risk around the 9 December Fed decision.
Significant Geopolitical Events with US Economic Impact
Oil surges on Iran/Saudi supply risk
Brent rose to ~$112-116.50 and WTI to ~$103 on rumors of a Houthi strike on a Saudi refinery and concerns the US could resume military strikes against Iran around the midterms. Elevated energy prices feed inflation risk and pressure equities while supporting energy names.
Q3 GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate, above forecasts, on strong investment and consumer spending, while initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 and continuing claims hit a three-year low of 1.701M. Robust data reduces near-term recession risk but reinforces higher-for-longer rate expectations, a mixed-to-negative signal for rate-sensitive equities.
AI-trade unwind pressures neoclouds and memory names
Investor scrutiny of AI infrastructure debt and capex has driven sharp October declines, including CoreWeave down 30%, Nebius down 27%, and the Roundhill Memory ETF down 14%. The broadening AI-trade unwind raises risk of continued near-term volatility in AI-linked equities and credit.