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The October jobs report is released today, with consensus at +65k payrolls, unemployment at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings at 0.3% m/m. A resilient print would bolster the case for a December Fed rate hike, pressuring equities and lifting yields, while a weak print would reinforce rate-hike doubts and support bonds and rate-sensitive tech.
FXStreetFears of tighter Democratic regulation of AI and data center construction sparked a massive unwind, with the Nasdaq Composite down 5.5%, the S&P 500 down 4.4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index collapsing 12.3% on Thursday. The rout wiped roughly $2.5 trillion from the Nasdaq and drove volatility to its biggest daily jump since the 2025 tariff shock, with rotation into defensives and havens.
Investing.comDemocrats secured majorities in both chambers of Congress, heightening concerns over regulatory scrutiny of AI development and data center construction. Texas Governor-Elect Gina Hinojosa called for a pause on new data center construction pending protective legislation, amplifying uncertainty over capex-heavy AI infrastructure names.
Investing.comFed funds futures scaled back the probability of a 25bp December rate hike to around 70% from over 80% on Wednesday, as the equity slump and AI growth concerns raised fresh doubts about further tightening. The repricing drove a bull-steepening of the Treasury curve, with 2-year yields down about 10bp to 4.47% and the 10-year at 4.84%.
CNBCThe University of Michigan consumer confidence survey is also released today alongside the jobs report. A weaker-than-expected reading would reinforce growth concerns already stoked by the AI selloff, supporting Treasuries and haven currencies while weighing on cyclicals.
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