The Labor Department releases October CPI today, with consensus at 0.3% MoM headline and 0.2% MoM core (YoY withheld due to the 2025 shutdown data gap). A core print at 0.2% or below could cut December rate-hike odds and support growth stocks, while 0.3%+ could lift Treasury yields and pressure equities. This is the day's dominant catalyst given ~80-84% priced odds of a December Fed hike.
Multiple Fed officials speak today, including Governor Waller (keynote in UK), Vice Chair Bowman, and regional presidents Logan, Schmid, and Paulson. Markets price roughly 80-84% odds of a December rate hike following September's first increase in three years; hawkish commentary would reinforce tightening expectations and pressure rate-sensitive equities and lift front-end yields.
Significant Geopolitical Events with US Economic Impact
Oil Slides on Iran War De-escalation Hopes
Brent has fallen roughly 22% from its late-October peak above $117 to near $90-92 as diplomatic efforts to end the nine-month Iran war gain momentum, with Trump signaling further strikes may not be necessary. Lower crude directly eases inflation pressure and has been a key driver of the equity rebound, though constrained LNG and refined product supplies keep some upside risk.
Nvidia opened an independent investigation into CEO Jensen Huang after he admitted to a romantic relationship with a businesswoman from a Singapore firm allegedly a Chinese intelligence spy. NVDA fell over 4% Monday, dragging on the S&P 500, and uncertainty over whether Huang remains CEO threatens the AI trade's key bellwether and broader semiconductor sentiment.
The Treasury auctions $42 billion in 10-year notes today, with the bond market closed tomorrow. Following soft demand in Monday's 3-year auction, weak bid-to-cover could push long-end yields higher and pressure equities, while strong demand would ease duration concerns.