Elon Musk confirmed SpaceX and Tesla have formed committees of independent directors to explore a potential merger, calling the idea "good." The news lifted SpaceX shares ~9% and Tesla ~2% after hours, and could drive further upside in both names and related AI/energy infrastructure stocks in the near term.
SpaceX reported Q3 revenue of $14.58B versus $13B expected and EPS of $0.35 versus $0.13 expected, with AI-related revenue of $7.56B surpassing Starlink for the first time. The beat lifted SpaceX shares ~9% after hours and buoyed Nasdaq-100 futures, supporting the broader AI narrative.
Super Micro Computer preliminary results beat expectations
Super Micro Computer reported preliminary quarterly figures significantly above Wall Street expectations, sending shares up ~15-17% in overnight trading. The beat improves sentiment ahead of a heavy slate of technology earnings this week.
Netflix reported quarterly results with a forecast that disappointed markets, sending the stock down nearly 5% overnight. The weakness contrasts with positive AI-driven earnings and could weigh on streaming and broader tech sentiment.
Significant Geopolitical Events with US Economic Impact
Middle East tensions keep oil near $110
Continued attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz threaten supply and drive up freight and insurance costs, keeping Brent near $110 for a third day. Morgan Stanley warns fuel tightness could persist through mid-2027, pressuring inflation and rate expectations while supporting energy stocks.
Meta, Tesla, IBM, and AT&T report earnings on Wednesday, while the EIA petroleum inventory report follows an API-reported 4.9-million-barrel decline in US crude stockpiles. These releases are likely to drive near-term volatility in tech, energy, and broad index futures.
Elevated energy prices are clouding the interest-rate outlook, with traders pricing in three 25-basis-point rate hikes by next July. Rising rate expectations, with the 10-year yield near 5.12% and 30-year near 5.46%, could pressure rate-sensitive equities and support the dollar.
General Motors beat estimates but guided cautiously, highlighting rising costs, sending shares down 5.7-6.8%. The cautious outlook raises concerns about auto sector margins and consumer demand amid elevated rates and energy costs.
3M beat Wall Street estimates and raised its full-year outlook, with shares closing nearly 6% higher. The positive industrial result supports broader earnings sentiment and cyclical rotation.
Cleveland-Cliffs reported adjusted EPS of 28 cents and adjusted EBITDA of $612M on about $5.6B sales, lifting shares 16.4%. The strong result supports materials and industrial sector sentiment.
Equifax surged 11.3% after stronger-than-expected results, supporting financial and data-services sentiment. The move reflects continued earnings resilience in select sectors.
Eli Lilly climbed 3.5% amid strength in healthcare, supporting defensive and growth-oriented healthcare sentiment. The move reflects continued demand resilience in pharma.
Significant Corporate Financing / AI Investment Concerns
Schneider Electric raises equity for PTC acquisition
Schneider Electric raised €6 billion in new equity to help fund its $22.6 billion acquisition of US industrial software company PTC, with shares falling 3.3%. The move highlights financing pressures and AI-related investment concerns weighing on European industrials.
AI infrastructure spending and credit concerns persist
Worries over the sustainability of debt-fueled AI infrastructure spending and elevated borrowing costs have dented sentiment in recent sessions, with US high yield spreads widening to 332 basis points, the highest since March. SpaceX CDS rose above 234 basis points, signaling rising credit risk perception.
US private payrolls slow, pending home sales at record low
US private payrolls growth slowed and pending home sales slid to a record low, signaling weakening labor and housing demand. The data could reinforce rate-cut expectations or heighten recession concerns, depending on market interpretation.
The US Treasury controversially proposed ending the issuance of 20-year notes, with a 20-year note auction scheduled for Wednesday. The proposal could affect the long-end yield curve and duration supply dynamics, influencing rates and rate-sensitive assets.
Talks over a computing-power deal potentially worth $45 billion between Nscale and Anthropic provided a boost to the AI narrative, supporting AI-related equities and infrastructure sentiment.
Significant Geopolitical Events with US Economic Impact
Unconfirmed Iran war talks rumor moves oil
Unconfirmed reports that Qatar and Pakistan proposed reviving talks to conclude the Iran war briefly sent oil prices down to $106 from $112, bolstering equity sentiment. The rumor was later contradicted by continued attacks, highlighting headline-driven volatility in energy markets.
The VIX fell 6.1% to 17.31 as front-end hedges unwound alongside easing concerns over AI-related credit, with VIX9D down 9.3% and VVIX down 9.2%. The decline in volatility gauges suggests reduced near-term hedging demand and potential support for risk assets.
ASML declined 2.7% amid pressure on chipmakers, reflecting ongoing concerns about AI investment sustainability and semiconductor demand. The weakness could weigh on semiconductor and tech sentiment.
Energy stocks including Bloom Energy, Oklo, and NuScale Power climbed after Elon Musk said power and cooling infrastructure, not semiconductors, are the actual constraints on growing "superintelligence." The comments boost sentiment for AI-adjacent energy and nuclear names.
UK CPI is ahead, alongside US data including Philly Fed non-manufacturing, housing starts, building permits, and pending home sales. These releases could influence rate expectations and broad market direction.