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Every name on today’s lists, with its Up and Down probabilities.
The October Producer Price Index is released today with headline expected at +6.6% y/y and core at +5.0%. Following a third consecutive above-consensus CPI reading, an upside surprise would reinforce Fed rate hike expectations, pressuring Treasuries and equities while boosting the dollar.
Saxo BankMultiple Fed officials (Daly, Goolsbee, Hammack, Bowman, Logan, Collins) speak today after hawkish comments this week. Markets now price one full rate hike in December plus two more before June, driving the 2-year yield to 4.88% and 10-year above 5.1%. Further hawkish rhetoric would extend the Treasury sell-off and pressure equities.
Saxo BankNvidia CEO Jensen Huang stepped down following allegations of inappropriate relationships including ties to an individual suspected of covert links to Beijing. NVDA fell 4.3% while rivals AMD and Broadcom gained ~5-6% as investors reassessed the AI chip competitive landscape. The leadership vacuum creates ongoing uncertainty for the AI sector.
Yahoo FinanceNvidia reports Q3 earnings next Tuesday, a critical test for the AI trade amid the CEO leadership crisis. The result will likely drive significant moves in NVDA and the broader semiconductor and AI complex, with elevated Nasdaq implied volatility already pricing a large move.
Saxo BankPresident Trump stated no deal with Iran is needed, and Iranian state media reported an attack near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent rose 3.3% to $95.82 and WTI 2.55% to $88.74, feeding inflation concerns and reinforcing Fed tightening expectations. Continued escalation would keep upward pressure on oil and yields.
Yahoo FinanceThe 30-year T-bond auction saw the weakest demand since summer, contributing to a sharp sell-off across the curve with the 10-year yield rising to ~5.12%. Weak auction demand signals deteriorating appetite for US debt, a risk factor for further yield increases and equity pressure.
Saxo BankHome Depot and Disney report Tuesday, followed by Target, Lowe's, and TJX on Wednesday and Walmart on Thursday. These results provide key reads on US consumer health amid near-record mortgage rates and slowing existing home sales, with potential to move retail and broad market sentiment.
Saxo BankSuper Micro Computer stock fell about 11% amid a probe into whether companies linked to an alleged Chinese spy smuggled its products to China. The investigation raises regulatory and geopolitical risk for the company and could weigh on related AI hardware names.
Yahoo FinanceOctober existing home sales fell 5.5% to 3.75 million, the lowest since 2010, amid near-record mortgage rates. Inventory rose to 5.1 months of supply. The weak housing data highlights rate-sensitive economic softening, a modest drag on housing-related equities.
Saxo BankCerebras Systems rallied 13% after-hours after reporting record Q3 revenue and issuing Q4 guidance above expectations. The strong result could support AI chip sentiment and provide a positive counterweight to Nvidia-related weakness.
Yahoo Finance