Nov 12
Energy holds up to 5 names from energy stocks above $200M. Selection follows the model's conviction in each name.
Equal capital goes into every recommendation. Recommendations are published a few hours before the open and placed as market orders, so buys and sells fill at the opening price. Positions are held for 6 to 21 days. Every position carries a 20% stop-loss: if the price touches it during the day, the position is sold there, at 80% of its entry price. Reported returns are measured from those opening prices and include every stop-loss exit.
VIST has fallen 16.8% over four weeks, pushing its RSI to 28.93 (oversold territory), while consensus EPS estimates for the current year rose 9.6% over the last 30 days. The combination of oversold technicals and positive estimate revisions raises the probability of a near-term trend reversal/bounce.
Zacks via Yahoo FinanceSelect reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.16 versus the $0.17 consensus, a -5.88% surprise, despite revenue of $412M (+28% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA of $93.5M (+57% YoY). The headline EPS miss is likely to weigh on near-term sentiment even as segment-level results were strong.
Yahoo Finance / ZacksManagement guided Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to $95-100M, reflecting the Peak Rentals deconsolidation and a partial Pilot Water contribution, with Water Infrastructure revenue guided to $150-160M. The guidance frames the near-term earnings trajectory and will drive post-earnings analyst revisions.
Select Water Solutions Press ReleaseSelect completed an upsized $900M inaugural senior notes offering to fund the Pilot Water acquisition and repay its term loan, and entered a new $500M revolving credit facility, more than doubling liquidity. The strengthened balance sheet supports integration but raises leverage and interest expense near term.
Select Water Solutions Press ReleaseSelect completed the recapitalization and sale of a 55% majority interest in Peak Rentals, deconsolidating the business while retaining a minority stake. The move reshapes segment reporting and drives the Q4 Water Services revenue decline guidance, a near-term modeling headwind.
Select Water Solutions Press ReleaseVista repurchased 30,000 Series A shares on both Nov 6 (MXN 1,068.97/share) and Nov 9 (MXN 1,064.26/share), leaving ~110.56M shares outstanding and ~1.74M in treasury. Consistent buyback execution under the April 2026 shareholder authorization provides steady demand support and signals management confidence, a mildly positive signal though individually low-impact.
SEC Filing (Form 6-K)Raymond James upgraded SEI to Strong Buy from Outperform and lifted its price target to $113 from $102, arguing a ~25% five-day selloff created an attractive tactical entry into a fundamentally sound power infrastructure business. The upgrade drove a 14.3% intraday surge, signaling renewed bullish sentiment.
Investing.comBarclays raised its SEI price target to $140 from $116 while maintaining Overweight, and Texas Capital Securities reiterated Buy with a $113 target, citing a meaningful EBITDA beat and better-than-expected Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 guidance. The cluster of bullish analyst actions reinforces the bull case and supports near-term momentum.
Investing.comSEI reported Q3 2026 revenue of ~$341M (up 55% sequentially, beating estimates by over 30%), Adjusted EBITDA of ~$136M, and adjusted EPS of $0.45 vs ~$0.29 expected. The company raised Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $165-185M and Q1 2027 to $220-260M, and management guided 2027 EBITDA to more than double 2026, a strong positive catalyst.
SEC Filing (Company Press Release)Democrat Gina Hinojosa's win in the Texas governor's race on a pledge to halt data center approvals hit AI power and energy stocks, with SEI falling 16.9% in the Nov 4 regular session before its earnings rebound. Texas holds a large share of planned US data center capacity, and management noted most of SEI's power operates outside Texas with relocatable contracts, but the policy overhang remains a near-term negative risk.
Dombey CapitalShoals agreed to an all-stock merger with ARRAY Technologies (ARRAY as legal acquirer), with Shoals holders receiving 1.6931 ARRAY shares per SHLS share and owning ~65% of the combined company. The deal creates an integrated solar/BESS infrastructure platform with pro forma 2027 revenue of $2.2-2.4B and >$100M targeted synergies; closing targeted Q1 2027 pending shareholder and regulatory approvals. Near-term impact is positive given the strategic premium/scale narrative, but the stock now trades partly on deal-arbitrage dynamics and approval risk.
Shoals Investor Relations (Press Release)Shoals reported Q3 revenue of $195.3M (+43.8% YoY) versus ~$162M consensus and adjusted EPS of $0.14 versus $0.12 expected, with adjusted EBITDA of $39.8M. Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $665-685M and guided Q4 revenue of $165-185M, signaling demand momentum; the beat-and-raise is a clear positive near-term catalyst reinforcing confidence in the business.
Shoals Investor Relations (Press Release)Backlog and awarded orders reached $791.7M as of Sept 30, 2026, up 9.8% YoY (down 1.2% sequentially), reflecting consistent demand and growth in emerging battery energy storage markets. The YoY growth supports the demand narrative underpinning the raised outlook, a modest positive for sentiment though the sequential dip tempers enthusiasm.
Shoals Investor Relations (Press Release)Gross margin declined to 31.9% from 37.0% YoY, driven by inefficiencies from ramping the new manufacturing facility, unfavorable product mix, and costs to address product quality matters including rework and corrective actions. The margin compression is a negative offset to the strong revenue beat and could weigh on sentiment regarding execution and profitability.
Shoals Investor Relations (Press Release)Matador reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.08 versus $1.82 expected and revenue of $1.16 billion versus $1.10 billion forecast, with record oil and gas revenue and production above guidance midpoint. Despite the beat, shares fell 6.67% to $50.69 after hours as investors questioned the durability of the sharp gas pricing improvement and higher capital spending tied to acquisitions and the Marlan plant expansion, creating near-term negative momentum.
Matador Resources Company Press ReleaseMatador raised the midpoint of its full-year 2026 production guidance to the high end of its prior range, implying 7% growth from year-end 2025, and guided to record Q4 2026 oil production of approximately 137,000 barrels per day (about 4% sequential growth) driven by the Paloma and Ridge Runner acquisitions. The constructive guidance supports the fundamental narrative but must overcome the negative post-earnings sentiment.
Matador Resources Company Press ReleaseMatador repaid over $150 million in borrowings in Q4 2026, $50 million more than previously announced, and now expects leverage to approach 1.5x by year-end 2026. The company also announced its eighth dividend increase in five years, raising the annual dividend 17% to $1.75 per share, which may support income-oriented investors but is unlikely to be a major near-term price driver on its own.
Matador Resources Company Press ReleaseSan Mateo announced increased commitments and dedications with a large Delaware Basin producer to underwrite a new 300 MMcfd natural gas processing plant at the Marlan complex, alongside integration of recently acquired Cardinal Midstream assets. The expansion supports long-term throughput growth and improved gas realizations, a modest positive offset to capex concerns.
Matador Resources Company Press ReleaseMatador closed its Ridge Runner acquisition in October, adding 13,600 net acres and bringing its total Woodford position to 50,000 acres, with early well results exceeding expectations. Positive Woodford delineation could support the growth narrative but is a secondary catalyst relative to the post-earnings reaction.
Investing.comSelect closed its acquisition of Pilot Water Solutions for ~$700M (~$600M cash plus 5.15M Class A shares), expanding its Delaware Basin water midstream position. The deal adds contractual revenue and minimum volume commitments, but the share issuance and a VWAP true-up provision introduce dilution and overhang considerations.
Select Water Solutions Press ReleaseManagement reiterated 2027 production of 185,000 boe/d and adjusted EBITDA of $3.3B (at $80 Brent), with Q4 2026 oil production ~175,000 bbl/d and 2026 guidance of 158,000 BOE/d intact. VMOS pipeline mechanical completion targeted for year-end with commercial operation in H1 2027, and $95M remains on the buyback program, reinforcing the growth and capital-return narrative.
MarketBeat (Q3 Earnings Call Transcript)On October 29, 2026, SEI signed a 15-year (option to extend 15 more) agreement to provide ~900 MW of power generation and O&M services to an existing investment-grade customer, with deployments beginning 1H 2027. This third long-term contract brings total contracted capacity to 3.2 GW and backlog above $16 billion, improving earnings visibility.
SEC Filing (Company Press Release)Q3 2026 total production rose 8% q-o-q and 33% y-o-y to 169,023 boe/d, with adjusted EBITDA up 78% y-o-y to $841.5M and free cash flow of $334.2M; net leverage fell to 1.12x. Strong operational momentum underpins the constructive fundamental backdrop, though the report is now two weeks old and largely priced in.
Vista Energy Q3 2026 Earnings Release