Nov 12
Basic Materials holds up to 6 names from basic materials above $200M: miners, chemicals and metals. Selection weighs the model's positive signal against its negative signal.
Equal capital goes into every recommendation. Recommendations are published a few hours before the open and placed as market orders, so buys and sells fill at the opening price. Positions are held for 6 to 8 days. Every position carries a 20% stop-loss: if the price touches it during the day, the position is sold there, at 80% of its entry price. Reported returns are measured from those opening prices and include every stop-loss exit.
Almonty reports quarterly results on November 17 with consensus at ~$49.8M revenue and $0.07 EPS. Investors are expected to focus less on headline numbers and more on management commentary regarding reliable Sangdong production and ramp-up pace, making the print a binary near-term catalyst.
boerse-global.de (ad-hoc-news.de)Sigma will report Q3 2026 results before market open on November 13, 2026, with a conference call at 7:00 a.m. EST. Preliminary figures show revenue of ~$23M, 7,293t production, and gross margin down to 32% from 60% QoQ after regulatory stoppages; the call is a key catalyst to validate 240kt/330kt production guidance amid depressed lithium prices.
SEC Filing (Form 6-K) via StockTitanLithium Americas is scheduled to release full Q3 2026 results on November 12, 2026, following preliminary figures disclosed in the project update. The report will provide the first full financial picture alongside the capex overrun, and could trigger further volatility depending on liquidity and cash-burn details.
Company Press ReleaseCNBC commentary noted Rayonier closing its valuation gap versus net asset value after stronger-than-expected results and buybacks, with shares up over 8% on a recent session and further upside seen. The coverage may draw incremental retail and value-investor attention to the timber and cellulose complex, including RYAM.
CNBCLithium Americas raised the Phase 1 capital cost estimate to $3.83 billion from $2.93 billion (~$900M increase), citing tariffs, logistics, craft labor wage inflation, install rates, and EPCM staffing. The overrun creates a ~$995M incremental funding requirement and directly erodes project NPV, driving shares to a record low of $1.70 (down as much as 10%). TD analyst Craig Hutchison noted the higher costs weigh on Thacker Pass value amid weakening lithium prices.
Company Press ReleaseSGML fell 10.67% to $5.32 on November 10, 2026, as investors digested dilution risk from the convertible bond restructuring and braced for Q3 results. The sharp move signals elevated near-term volatility and fragile sentiment heading into the earnings catalyst.
BRZ NewsJefferies reiterated a Buy rating and $21 price target on USAR, implying substantial upside from the ~$8.3 post-earnings level. The reiteration provides a supportive analyst counterweight to the earnings-driven selloff, though the wide gap between target and price underscores execution risk.
Investing.comUnder OWCA 3 signed November 10, 2026, the incremental funding requirement is expected to be met via $650M in Company contributions to the Thacker Pass JV and $315M from DOE Loan reserve accounts, with a ~$30M reduction in Sustaining Capex Reserve requirements. The Company contributions will increase LAC's JV ownership percentage. While it resolves near-term funding, the added equity burden and dilution/ownership dynamics may weigh on sentiment.
Company Press ReleaseThe Sangdong filter press is running at 40 tonnes per hour versus a planned 80, with a replacement press being installed; a round-the-clock run on November 1 halted after ten hours due to equipment failure before restarting. Resolution of this bottleneck is a key checkpoint for delivery against the GTP offtake and could swing sentiment around the earnings report.
boerse-global.de (ad-hoc-news.de)USAR reported a Q3 2026 loss of $0.44 per share versus consensus of $0.19, with revenue of $3.0 million and a $20 million gross loss on that revenue. Shares gapped down from $8.76 to an $8.26 open on Nov 10. The wider loss, elevated cash burn ($143.7M operating cash use in Q3), and a delayed Round Top SK-1300 report (pushed to Q3 2027) weigh on near-term sentiment.
Company Press Release (GlobeNewswire)USAR began commercial-scale MREC shipments in October and recorded first sales in November under a 15-year, 100% take-or-pay offtake with US SIIE (U.S. Government-funded SPV), priced on non-China reference prices with guaranteed floors for Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb. Non-China Dy oxide prices are 14-16x China prices and Tb 6-9x, supporting revenue quality. Validates production ramp toward ~4,000 tpa TREO by Q2 2027.
Company Press Release (GlobeNewswire)USAR delivered first yttrium oxide samples from its 24/7 continuous SX demonstration plant to a major defense/medical/specialty coatings company for testing and prototyping. Positions USAR among few non-Asia producers with yttrium separation capability, a supply-constrained heavy rare earth; supports the strategic narrative and potential future commercial qualification.
Company Press Release (GlobeNewswire)Calumet reported Q3 2026 GAAP EPS of $2.91 (beating by $1.24) and revenue of $1.68B (+55.6% Y/Y, beating by $340M), with Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $347.2M. Despite the beat, shares fell from ~$43.35 pre-earnings to ~$40.67 as management cautioned the elevated environment is "not a new long-term norm," raising margin-sustainability concerns that could drive near-term volatility.
Calumet Investor Relations (PRNewswire)Management highlighted advancing a lower-risk, capital-efficient MaxSAF expansion at Montana Renewables, which delivered record Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $80.4M in its first full quarter post-SET2 RVO. Analysts flagged MaxSAF ramp and SAF production progress as key near-term catalysts to watch, with execution updates capable of moving shares.
Calumet Investor Relations (PRNewswire)RYAM reported a Q3 2026 loss of $3.40 per share versus a $0.01 profit consensus, with revenue of $383M missing the $387.8M estimate. The headline loss was driven by $221M in non-cash impairments tied mainly to Temiscaming, while underlying HPC operations improved; the muted stock reaction suggests the impairment was largely anticipated.
Company Press ReleaseManagement no longer expects to conclude its strategic review in Q4 2026 and now targets Q1 2027, citing tariff-related uncertainty at Temiscaming slowing interested parties. A sale remains an option with no decision made; the delay removes a near-term catalyst and prolongs uncertainty over the site's path forward.
Company Press ReleaseHPC income from continuing operations rose sequentially from $29M to $44M with Adjusted EBITDA of $73M and total cellulose shipments up 4%, while consolidated Adjusted EBITDA reached $52M. Management targets CS volumes exiting the year near a 100,000 metric ton per quarter run rate, supporting the bull case for the Cellulose Specialties franchise.
Company Press ReleaseSigma priced an upsized US$125M five-year convertible bond at a 7% fixed coupon (25% conversion premium, no conversion for 12 months) to repay Synergy Capital secured debt, cutting short-term debt ~80% and extending maturity to 2031. While it lowers interest costs and improves the balance sheet, the equity-linked structure raises dilution concerns that have pressured shares; closing expected on or about November 16, 2026.
Sigma Lithium Press ReleaseCalumet redeemed $150M of its 9.75% Senior Notes due 2028 on October 25, 2026, bringing total debt retired to ~$265M since July 2026 and yielding ~$26M in annual cash interest savings. Continued deleveraging supports balance-sheet strength and is a positive narrative for near-term sentiment.
Calumet Investor Relations (PRNewswire)The initial commercial shipment of tungsten departed Sangdong on October 24, the first in over thirty years, with the grinding circuit at full throughput and recoveries in line with expectations. Confirmation of sustained shipments supports the thesis that the mine can supply contracted volumes, a key driver for post-earnings sentiment.
almonty.com (CEO Newsletter)Almonty hosted its 2026 Investor Day on October 19, bringing its full operating team together to present a tungsten market overview and mine-by-mine operational updates as Sangdong became commercially operational and Phase II moved forward. The event provided updated guidance that continues to inform near-term expectations.
almonty.com (Company Press Release)DA Davidson maintained a Buy rating and $33 price target after meeting executives, adjusting 2026/2027 estimates for timing shifts and now expecting Sangdong to contribute revenue and EBITDA in Q4 2026. The reiterated target, well above the ~$11.24 trading level, provides a supportive analyst backdrop into earnings.
investing.comThree weeks after signing its Rwanda deal, Almonty is collecting material and expects to ship more than 100 tonnes per month from next month, positioning it as the country's largest tungsten exporter. The short-cycle supply adds incremental volume not yet in DA Davidson's model, a potential positive surprise element.
almonty.com (CEO Newsletter)Almonty cleared the final regulatory hurdle for commercial operations at its Sangdong processing plant, enabling tungsten concentrate sales under the 21-year GTP offtake covering over 90% of Phase I output, arriving amid historically high tungsten prices. The certification underpins the revenue ramp narrative heading into results.
finance.yahoo.com (Simply Wall St)Following the 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian paperboard effective August 22, 2026, RYAM economically idled paperboard and high yield pulp production at Temiscaming on October 3, 2026, incurring estimated carrying costs of $2-3M per month. The idling removes a loss-making operation but adds ongoing cash burn and keeps tariff exposure in focus.
Company Press Release