Basic Materials Portfolio

UPDATED ON

Sep 25

About this portfolio

Description

Basic Materials holds up to 6 names from basic materials above $200M: miners, chemicals and metals. Selection weighs the model's positive signal against its negative signal.

Strategy

Equal capital goes into every recommendation. Recommendations are published a few hours before the open and placed as market orders, so buys and sells fill at the opening price. Positions are held for 6 to 8 days. Every position carries a 20% stop-loss: if the price touches it during the day, the position is sold there, at 80% of its entry price. Reported returns are measured from those opening prices and include every stop-loss exit.

Holdings:6
New Additions:1
Removed:1

Holdings6

NEW

NEXA

Nexa Resources S.A.
Sector:Basic Materials
Industry:Industrial Materials
Market Cap:$1.72B
Analysts Target:+5%
Analysts Rating:3.2/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
45.8%
36.3%
35.3%

NWPX

NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.
Sector:Basic Materials
Industry:Construction Materials
Market Cap:$0.98B
Analysts Target:-40%
Analysts Rating:2.7/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
41.6%
24.8%
25.7%

CF

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Sector:Basic Materials
Industry:Agricultural Inputs
Market Cap:$19.62B
Analysts Target:-1%
Analysts Rating:2.6/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
29.6%
28.5%
12.6%

KALU

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
Sector:Basic Materials
Industry:Aluminum
Market Cap:$2.45B
Analysts Target:+17%
Analysts Rating:2.8/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
39.2%
35.3%
23.0%

AA

Alcoa Corporation
Sector:Basic Materials
Industry:Aluminum
Market Cap:$11.74B
Analysts Target:+42%
Analysts Rating:2.5/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
46.7%
23.4%
28.8%

EXK

Endeavour Silver Corp.
Sector:Basic Materials
Industry:Silver
Market Cap:$3.02B
Analysts Target:+2%
Analysts Rating:2.3/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
40.8%
34.1%
30.9%
Removed Stocks1
REMOVED

MT

ArcelorMittal S.A.
Sector:Basic Materials
Industry:Steel
Market Cap:$55.20B
Analysts Target:+0%
Analysts Rating:2.5/5
ForecastQ Daily Probabilities
31.5%
14.0%
11.7%

Recent News & Events

AANEUTRALOct 15, 2026
Earnings Report

Q3 2026 Earnings Release Scheduled

Alcoa has scheduled its third-quarter 2026 financial results announcement and conference call for October 15, 2026, after the market close. This event will provide investors with updates on operational performance, the impact of recent debt financing, and progress on the South32 asset acquisition.

Alcoa Press Release
CFPOSITIVESep 25, 2026
Analyst Coverage Initiation

Bernstein Initiates Coverage with Outperform Rating

Bernstein SocGen Group initiated coverage on CF Industries with an Outperform rating and a price target of $162.00. This positive outlook contrasts with recent underweight initiations from other firms, potentially providing a near-term bullish catalyst for the stock.

Investing.com
AANEUTRALSep 23, 2026
Regulatory Filing

Completion of $2.6 Billion Debt Offering

On September 23, 2026, Alcoa completed a $2.6 billion senior notes offering to fund the cash portion of its acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets. The company also terminated its bridge loan facility, signaling a transition to long-term capital market funding for the transaction.

SEC Filing (Form 8-K)
EXKNEGATIVESep 22, 2026
Operational Update

Temporary Reduced Capacity at Guanacevi Mine

Endeavour Silver has taken the primary ball mill at its Guanacevi mine offline due to a mechanical issue identified on September 21, 2026. The company expects repairs to be completed within approximately three weeks, during which the facility will operate at a reduced throughput of 600 tonnes per day compared to the normal 1,100 tonnes per day. Mining operations remain uninterrupted, and the company stated that repair costs are expected to be minimal.

GlobeNewswire
NWPXNEGATIVESep 21, 2026
Insider Sale

CFO and Director Insider Stock Sales

CFO Aaron Wilkins and director Keith Larson have executed routine stock sales under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plans. While these are standard divestments, they have contributed to recent negative sentiment as investors weigh them against the stock's significant year-to-date rally.

SEC EDGAR
CFNEGATIVESep 18, 2026
Analyst Rating Change

Recent Underweight Ratings and Valuation Concerns

Several analysts, including KeyBanc and Freedom Broker, have recently issued cautious ratings (Underweight/Hold), citing concerns that nitrogen prices may have peaked and that future earnings could reset lower as new global supply enters the market. These reports have contributed to recent downward pressure on the share price.

Investing.com
KALUNEGATIVESep 18, 2026
Analyst Rating Change

Wells Fargo Trims Price Target to $160

Wells Fargo downgraded Kaiser Aluminum from 'Underweight' to 'Equal-Weight' but lowered its price target from $169 to $160. This move has been cited by market observers as a signal of reduced confidence in near-term upside, contributing to recent volatility and selling pressure.

Gurufocus

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